LeBron and the RNC

Cleveland has been all over the media lately, and not just for flaming river jokes.  We managed to land both the 2016 Republican National Convention and LeBron in the same week.  Unless "King James" is a secret Reaganite, these are obviously separate news items.  But is there a common theme?

There is, and it is that the Republicans have something to learn from LeBron's return.

Depending on how you look at it, the crowds are either forgiving or fickle.  A few years ago, LeBron was seen as the Judas of Cleveland, forsaking his allegiances for the chance at a ring or two.  Heck, just a few weeks ago, much of the town was rooting for the San Antonio Spurs, just to see LeBron's Heat lose.

With his announcement to return, LeBron was given instant prodigal son treatment by the same fans who had sworn eternal anger at him.

Republicans, are you watching?

The rush to embrace LeBron shows how easily swayed the masses can be.  Yes, the GOP has struggled for decades in Cleveland, but there was a time that this was a good Republican town.  Can the GOP Convention be "The Return" for Republicans?  Can it peel away the horrible reputation that Democrats have painted on the GOP in Cleveland?

In all honesty, the GOP convention in Cleveland will be lucky to turn enough hearts for it to be worth it.  But considering the wildly passionate embrace the once hated LeBron received, it's always good to remember how quickly popular opinion can sway.

RNC Cleveland.

It's official...the 2016 Republican National Convention is coming to Cleveland.

I recently wrote about this with some skepticism.  Really, I was hoping it was just a ploy by the GOP to rally at least a little support in our dear swing state.

But the Republican Committee went ahead and did it.

This move is likely a symbol of the 2016 elections as a whole.  Either the Republican Party has learned nothing in its eight years of defeat (2010 excluded), or there is something so brilliant going on that we don't even know it's brilliant.  I mean, Cleveland?  Really?  This is a staunchly Democrat town in the heart of the Rust Belt.  It is the opposite of "cool."  I can say from experience that Beltway types often gasp when hearing of a bright young professional who chooses to stay in the Midwest.

But it is a swing state, both politically and economically.  Maybe the GOP sees that its only chance of winning is engaging those far away from the eastern seaboard.

I'm still pretty skeptical, though.  It's not called the "Stupid Party" for nothing.

What Matters Most in Life?

You might notice that I post a lot of Prager University videos on here.  They are not lacking for content and aesthetics.



This week, Dennis discusses what is most important in life:  good values.  It is somewhat ironic that he presents this in a value-free fashion.  That is to say, he assumes that anyone with good values would not cheat.  Is this realistic?   Some people value getting into a good school over honesty.  So Dennis is not just advocating values, he is advocating a certain set of values -- that is, the Judeo-Christian values.  This is, after all, the value set which has done the most good for mankind.  I'm not sure if this was intentional to avoid setting off secular viewers, because Dennis is usually not afraid to bring God into his arguments.  But speaking of "values" without a context does not do much in the way of "life studies."

The Costs of Brazil vs Colombia: Protest and Poverty at Brazil's World C...

An important look at the "unseen" impact of publicly funded professional sports.



I don't know too much about the examples of China and Brazil that the video brings up, but no one should be surprised.  I can comment a little on America's questionable government/sports relationship.



Eminent domain claims have not been used in America (yet), but we've come close enough.  Cleveland levies a "sin tax" that goes to fund pro sports infrastructure.  These facilities get massive tax breaks and subsidies to occupy prime real estate, where some of them are used only a few times a year.



People are crazy about their sports, but it's time to stop offering unconditional love and look at the crony capitalism behind a lot of these stadium projects.

4th of July Declaration

Mississippi -- Another reason to repeal

This is starting to cycle out of the news, but I wanted to spill a few pixels over Mississippi's election.

Dirty secrets are still surfacing, but it looks like the Republican establishment really outdid itself this time.  I try to avoid cliches, but "with friends like this, you don't need enemies."

I might be naive, but it seems like politics has been getting dirtier the past few years.  This seems especially apparent at the state and local level, where the margins are usually smaller and just a few votes can tip the balance.  Al Franken's election comes to mind.  How to avoid some of this behavoir?

Repeal the 17th!

We've discussed this earlier, but the 17th Amendment allowed for the direct election of senators.  This gave greater control to the state government and served as a moderating force to the whims of the people.
It also helped avoid voter fraud.  It is much easier to re-count the votes of 100 or so state legislators than thousands of private citizens, some of whom may not even have identification cards.  The reality of voter fraud was all the more apparent in the Mississippi election, where Democrats were openly voting in the Republican primary, and little effort was made to check their eligibility.

It was likely not a determining factor, but the avoidance of voter fraud is one of the best consequences of an indirect election process.  We should go back to this system instead of facing another questionable election such as in Mississippi.

Ann Coulter on Soccer

Hysteria from pundits of all political stripes has ensued from Ann Coulter's column criticizing soccer in America.  Conservatives and liberals both have claimed this as a sign that Tea Party types are out of touch and conspiratorial.

Let me defend Ann to my vast reading audience.

This column is another classic Coulter style of mixing satire with serious thought.  Too bad she didn't really supply any statistics, but one has to wonder how much demography really does have to do with interest in the World Cup.

For instance, I was in Canada a couple of weeks ago.  Half of the citizens of Toronto were born outside Canada.  There was a much greater zeal for the World Cup in Canada than in America.  It's just more popular overseas.

Is that necessarily a character defect? Maybe not.  I am very critical of the mob-like escapism that professional sports provides, but I don't see how following soccer is any different than American football or hockey.  I will posit that the shift in popularity from baseball to football is likely a symptom of our growing attention deficit.

Regardless of the reasons that soccer may be growing in popularity, the liberal backlash against this column is disgusting.  Coulter does not seek legislation to ban soccer.  She does not use inappropriate language to criticize them.  She doesn't even compare anyone to Hitler!

When schools are banning cupcakes at birthday parties, the wrath over this column is really misplaced.

RNC Cleveland?

Cleveland has made it to the final round in the 2016 GOP Convention.
As usual, the Republican National Committee has given us options that make no sense.

The two finalist cities couldn't be further apart.  Dallas is booming, conservative and Southern.  Cleveland is stagnating, liberal and Northeastern Rust Belt.  This is not a conservative-friendly town.

While I appreciate the GOP is making a better attempt to influence the swing state of Ohio, this would have been much better accomplished with a Cincinnati or Columbus bit.  The infrastructure, economy and conservative base of these cities are much more realistic for a GOP Convention.

Mergers

With the economy stagnant and companies sitting on ever-increasing piles of cash, mergers and acquisitions are building to pre-recession levels.  This story goes into the corporate psychology that would compel executives to do this.

But the average investor, employee, and customer should not follow along.

In an economy where a simple handheld app can upend industries to the point where worldwide strikes ensue (a la Uber), what is the benefit of assembling a bureaucratic organization?  The information-driven economy has never been better for smaller start-ups and entrepreneurs to take on new markets quickly, without needing vast infrastructure.

Large conglomerates worked when the economy was based on lowering the marginal cost of producing widgets.  Now that the marginal cost of sharing information is essentially zero, this strategy is not going to work.

All data subject to change

My posts have been less frequent these days.  There's been a lot going on at work and otherwise lately.

Rather than my usual news-item commentary, I am going to write about something I've learned from data modelling and visualization.

The biggest expense for many employers is salaries & wages.  This can be a tricky expense to model and visualize, because there is a lot of seasonality in the way payroll expenses are paid.  I will give one example of a visualization that looked great until June or so -- then started failing.

Why?  

My graphs were focused on showing the trend of different pay types (overtime, maternity leave, etc.) month-over-month.  What special kind of payroll would peak in summer?  Vacation!

A full year of data would have showed that vacation time dwarfs most other pay types.  The comparisons were much harder to see with this huge gap drowning out the scale.  I needed to consider a better visualization to account for the abnormal build in vacation time versus other pay types.

Moral of the story?  Think about where your data is going.  Think about seasonality and what might come next before you get too confident in your visualization.  Do a lot of backtesting, or fitting old data into your model or visualization.

McCarthy's election

Unsurprisingly, Kevin McCarthy has been named House majority leader.

While I am somewhat disappointed in this decision, I am proud that some level of indirect representation still exists in this country.  One of my college professors at Hillsdale proudly sported the bumper sticker, "Repeal the 17th!"  For those of you who didn't go to Hillsdale, this is the amendment allowing the direct election of senators.

The Senate was loosely based of Britain's House of Lords, which back then was largely seated with inherited delegates.  Our Senators were sent by state legislators.  This was meant to restrain the whims of the voting populace from sending radical candidates to the Senate.  The electoral college method of choosing a president was also meant to lend temperance to the process.

Today, Senators are elected directly, and there is a huge push to abolish the electoral college.  The House was designed to be the federal body most engaged with the people, but there are still some indirectly appointed positions.  At least the voting of the Speaker, Majority Leader, etc., are still handled by the legislature itself.  I did not feel any less engaged than had I voted myself.  With so many other ways to make one's voice heard, voting is not the sole means of political expression anymore.  

Pelletier goes home

Here's some good news  for a change.

Justina Pelletier has been allowed to return home after a battle with Boston Children's which should give anyone concern about this venerable institution.

Belly up to the student loan bubble

The cumulative outstanding balance on federal direct student loans has jumped 517.4 percent under Obama's watch.

With easy credit and fewer jobs available, students are piling onto debt like fried chicken at a Golden Corral.  The aftermath of such behavior is never good.  To make matters worse, student loan burdens are being made less strenuous for those who choose "public sector" jobs.  All-you-can-eat benefits.

Can the taxpayer even afford enough Tums to justify this behavior?  

Hoover and the Great Depression

The parallels between the Great Depression and our Great Recession are uncanny.



A Democrat comes into office on the heels of a milquetoast Republican, blaming the economy on a free-market straw man while in reality continuing on the same economic policies.



I always wondered how on earth an economic downturn could have lasted 10 whole years.  That's eons in the business world!  In the Bush-Obama period, I'm starting to see how it is possible.



Here's to hoping that this economic malaise won't be overshadowed by a major war....

Father's Day

In honor of Father's Day, here is a post from Dennis Prager, explaining the commandment to honor our mother and father.

Happy Father's Day to all those men living and departed who serve as role models for us to live the Judeo-Christian values.

Entrepreneurs vs. thugs

These remarks from Thom Hartmann are truly idiotic.

You "don't have to deal" with the Koch Brothers?  Are you kidding me?  So men that made their fortune the old-fashioned way and are contributing to advance liberty and cure cancer are favorable to a cabal of thugs?

I'll take even the slickest of shysters on the free market over a shyster with the power to seize my property.

UberCab Demo

Uber is all over the news, including this blog.  It's exciting.

Below is a demonstration from this app on how Uber actually works.

10 years behind the conservatives?

It's often said that American policy is basically just Europe's, but 10 years behind.  This implied that progressive ideas made their way here, they just faced a little more resistance.

It starts to seem like America is again behind the times -- but this time it's because we are slow to embrace conservative policies.  Just as Britain hits the brink of an immigration crisis and Canada relaxes its energy policies, Obama has us going straight to these same tired policies.

We can only hope that this is our future.  And with an economics professor handily defeating a tired old Republican, maybe we will get there.

Steps of Pittsburgh

We at this blog are fans of all things Rust Belt.  The WSJ had a great human interest story on the stairs of Pittsburgh.

Like most Midwestern cities, Pittsburgh's industrial days have left behind an expensive infrastructure.  In this case, many stairs were constructed to accommodate immigrant working-class housing.  The city can barely chart all these staircases, let alone maintain them.

It would be a shame for the city to just destruct these.  How about privatizing them?  Like the article says, many of these stairs lead to residences that cannot easily be found from the street.  Private companies would do a much better job cataloging their own property.

In a city that is leading the Rust Belt's recovery, this urban, pedestrian-friendly feature of the city should be capitalized on.  Privatization of the city's stairs would be a great way to explode the myth that infrastructure can only be maintained by the government.

Perverse Incentives U

In a move completely against the principles of economic incentives, President Obama used that famous pen to sign an executive order which would cap student loan payment to 10% of a student's monthly income.

Really?

As a hardworking recent graduate who (along with my parents) has made a lot of sacrifices to pay off my student loans the old-fashioned way, I am honestly too exasperated to elaborate.  So take it away, Peter Schiff.

This is going to be the student loan bubble's equivalent of the Community Reinvestment Act.

#Perverseincentives